How to Do Precisely the Right Thing at All Possible Times
The Psychology of Bad Probability Estimation: Why Lottos and Terrorists Matter
Here is a link 23mb mp3 to the audio of a truly marvelous presentation given by Harvard's Daniel Gilbert this year at South By Southwest.
It's not just an awesome presentation, it's important. It's about 50 minutes long, so make some time for yourself and listen to it. I'm copying this to my iPod and I plan to listen to it repeatedly.
This is just the sort of thing I wish to train into my subconscious mind. I recommend it heartily.
More about Daniel Gilbert:
Wikipedia article on Daniel Gilbert
Daniel Gilbert's home page
Short bio with a link to a video at the bottom
Stumbling on Happiness (Hardcover)
Stumbling on Happiness (Paperback)
Oddly, the hardcover edition is $14.97 while the paperback is $24.95...I wonder if this is another of his tests? :-)
Daniel Gilbert interviewed on NPR
Affective forecasting...or...The Big Wombassa: What You think you're going to get, and what you don't get, when you get what you want. [2.13.04]
A Talk with Daniel Gilbert